Eastern Visayas Inflation Spike Reflects Chronic Neglect

Posted on Feb. 12, 2026 at 9:12 am

Here is a number trouble in Eastern Visayas: 5%, the inflation rate Samar province recorded in January 2026. It is more than double the regional average. It is above the national government’s target ceiling.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that regional inflation nearly doubled in a single month, from 1.4% in December to 2.5% in January. Five of six provinces saw prices accelerate. Tacloban City, the region’s economic hub, climbed to 2.6%.

On paper, these figures remain within the Bangko Sentral’s 2-4% comfort zone. The BSP is unlikely to intervene based on one month’s regional data. No one is suggesting panic. But the trajectory is alarming.

The primary driver, as PSA regional chief Mae Almonte explained, is rice. But rice prices are actually falling. The annual decline in December stood at a steep 12.7 percent. By January, that decline had slowed to 5.5 percent.

This is what economists call disinflation, where prices are still dropping, but at a slower rate. And because rice carries heavy weight in the consumer price index, even a modest deceleration can nudge the entire inflation needle upward.

But rice alone does not explain Samar’s 5%. Nor does it account for the sharp upticks in electricity, fuel, and eating out. It reflects structural differences in how provinces are connected to markets.

Samar’s geography and infrastructure constraints have long made it more vulnerable to price shocks. When fuel costs rise, transport costs follow. When transport costs rise, everything from rice to construction materials becomes more expensive. The province’s 5% inflation is not an accident. It is a consequence of chronic underinvestment playing out in real time.

Samar’s 5% is not just a statistic; it is a warning. Prices are accelerating faster than anticipated, the reprieve from falling rice prices may be ending, and some provinces are being left behind.

How policymakers respond will determine whether this January 2026 PSA report is treated as a mere statistic or a turning point.